From the mailbag: your 'climategate' survival guide

Last month, as you probably know, unknown hackers gained access to the server at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom – home to the University's Climate Research Lab. The hackers obtained 1,037 emails and documents, some of them 13 years old. Some unfortunately worded correspondences between a handful of scientists have sparked a furor over the verity of climate science. And we admit, when a climatologist tells another that they’ve developed a 'trick' to 'hide the decline' in temperatures so that the data conform to their theory – that doesn’t look good. One of the authors of the these email exchanges, Phil Jones, has stepped down from his lab leadership job but remains on staff at the University. The fallout has reverberated throughout the scientific community and doubtless skeptics will use the incident to cast stones at the upcoming Copenhagen Climate Conference. However, despite the shrillness of the debate, it's important to keep several things in mind:

• From the Wall Street Journal: "Most climate scientists today argue that the earth's temperature is rising, and nearly all of those agree that human activity is likely to be a prime or at least significant cause. But a vocal minority dispute one or both of those views."
• From the Christian Science Monitor: "Nothing in the package appears to overturn the general idea — arrived at via many lines of evidence — that the CO2 humans have been pumping into the atmosphere is warming the planet, nor does anything bolster the notion some put forward of a hoax on the part of climate scientists."
• From the Union of Concerned Scientists: "Even without data from CRU, there is still an overwhelming body of evidence that human activity (is) triggering dangerous levels of global warming."

Here at OEC, we’ve received several emails about this issue. Some were asking for help in explaining the issue, some were, well, a little skeptical. Either way, we love hearing from you, so keep them coming. Here's our conversations on this over the last week or so...

'With the media full of articles calling global climate change a fraud and deception, can you help me to find any genuine scientific articles or studies that prove unquestionably the evidence of global warming to share with my non believing friends and associates?' Thanks.

John

Lincoln City, OR

Thanks for writing us: Last week’s imbroglio certainly provided more fodder for climate skeptics to chew on leading up to the talks in Copenhagen, but it failed to undermine the case for cutting emissions, or show that the scientific case for global climate change is overstated. Fortunately there are plenty of places to go that demonstrate the sheer breadth of science on the issue. Below are a few that cover the gamut of highly technical discussion to studies translated into language people other than scientists can understand.

1. Go to the source – this is the summary of the IPCC’s 2007 4th Assessment. IPCC scientists have since come out with additional studies on areas such as glacial melt and  sea level rise, but this is a really good synopsis of what is happening and what we can expect. http://ipccwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf
2. This is a website run by scientists and provides not only basic climate information but also up-to-date posts on new studies and specific rebuttals to skeptics’ most common claims. For a website run by climate scientists, it’s easy to read and understand. http://www.realclimate.org/
3. This is NOAA’s website on climate – also a pretty clear explanation of what climate science is and an assessment of what is likely to happen under most warming scenarios. http://wdc.cricyt.edu.ar/paleo/globalwarming/home.html
4. Try a slightly different perspective on global warming. This report, released in 2008, was written by 11 retired 3- and 4-star generals of the U.S. Armed Forces and describes climate impacts on national security. http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/
5. Finally, for a glimpse of what is happening closer to home – the Pacific Northwest – go the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group website. There you can find temperature rise, sea level rise, snow pack decline, changes in precipitation, wildfires – all as it relates to Washington and Oregon. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

Good luck!

- Sallie

“Do you actually have numbers showing that Oregon is noticeably warming due to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? Got your flier on global warming.'We really didn't get much of a summer around here and I seem to remember getting stuck in snow in Portland last winter. Maybe you should work on stopping Oregon's cooling trend."

 Geoff

Merlin, OR

Hello Geoff,

Oregon has been noticeably warming for decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, on a scale that is consistent with what would be expected from a global growth in emissions – approximately 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1920. As a result declines in snow pack have been observed in the Cascades, particularly at low elevations, and snow pack itself has already been reduced by as much as 20%, and in some places more than 20%. What’s important to remember is that average temperatures are rising, which doesn’t mean that some years won’t be cooler than others, with more or less rain, but that colder days won’t be as cold, and our hotter days will be generally hotter – on average.

In 2007, the Oregon Legislature passed the Climate Change Integration Act, which in part established the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. The CCRI was formed to coordinate climate research among faculty at the Oregon University System and provide information to the public. The CCRI website is just getting off the ground but it does have some good links to resources with more specific information on regional warming and related impacts: http://www.coas.oregonstate.edu/OCCRI/About_OCCRI.html.

Thanks for your letter,

-Sallie