Predictions of Global Warming Impacts within the Rogue River Basin

Predictions of Global Warming Impacts within the Rogue River Basin

• Rising Temperatures in the Basin: Annual average temperatures are likely to increase from 1 to 3ºF (0.5 to 1.6ºC) by 2040 and 4 to 8ºF (2.2 to 4.4ºC) by 2080. Summer temperatures may increase dramatically, reaching 7 to 15ºF (3.8 to 8.3º) above baseline by 2080.
• Increased Wildfire, Storms and Flooding: Reduced snowpack and soil moisture along with hotter temperatures and longer fire seasons are likely to significantly increase the amount of vegetation consumed by fire. Increased fire frequency in southern Oregon will negatively impact the 3,370 people employed by the forestry industry and the 21,400 people in forest related manufacturing. The incidence of storms and flooding is also predicted to increase. Populations most vulnerable to flooding will be those living in portions of inland valley bottoms (e.g. portions of Ashland, Medford, Central Point, Grants Pass, Applegate area, and Cave Junction within the floodplain) and steep canyons with forested areas.
• Decreased Snowpack and Stream-Flow: Rising temperatures will turn snow into rain at lower elevations and decrease average January snowpack significantly, with a corresponding decline in runoff and stream-flows. According to one model, snowpack will be reduced 75% from baseline by 2040, and another 75% from 2040 to an insignificant amount by 2080. Ashland, which depends on reservoir capacity, and Josephine County, which has only two municipal water systems, will be especially susceptible to water shortages. In addition, reduced stream-flow will limit the amount of electricity generated by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) hydro system in summer months (just as electricity demand rises).
• Infrastructure and Energy: Expect increased disruption and direct damage to buildings, real estate, transportation, and energy systems from flooding and wildfires. Among all western states, several of the most severely at risk counties are within southwestern Oregon (especially areas that overlap with the Southern Cascade Range).
• Agriculture, Manufacturing, Retail and Service Sectors: Agriculture will face increased competition for available water supplies, and higher temperatures are likely to reduce the viability of pears and wine grapes, particularly in Jackson County’s pinot noir vineyards. Manufacturing, retail, and service sectors are likely to experience higher fuel and electrical costs due to reduced summer output from the BPA hydro system, disruption in supply chains and the distribution of goods due to increased dramatic weather events and workplace health concerns.
• Public Health: Demands for emergency services are likely to increase due to dramatic weather events, and rising summer temperatures will likely increase the incidence and intensity of heat-related illnesses and vector-born diseases like Lyme disease and West Nile Virus.